30/04/14,WEDNESDAY

1) Mild Gap up and spiked up in no time.Couldn't trade this move.

2) PDH resisted the upmove. Took the BOF of PDH and got 22 points. Exited when the BRN seemed to support.


3) Fall continued and could have taken BPB PDL Short.But already 70 points had fallen and didn't expect much fall further. Another reason - Didn't want to lose the profit. Was looking for BOF trades. But price went down nicely upto BRN - 6700.

4) Didn't take the BOF of BRN, as it was already past 3.00 PM.

29/04/2014, TUESDAY

1) Fell by 65 points very quickly without giving any signal, in the first few minutes.

2) Went for a direct BO above RH, lured by the fluidity. This move started due to the BOF of the other extreme.Didn't notice it. It was a serious mistake. Low of BO candle was SL. Stopped out. Assuming that the price is reversing, shorted at the same place, where I exited the previous LONG trade. This also got stopped out. Lost -10 points. This is the second time, getting whipsawed left and right at MSP.  Really a bad day indeed.

Instead of direct BO, should take TRAP between minor swing pivot inside the rane hereafter, which seems to be a safer option.

3) Strong BOF of  BRN PDL was a good signal. As the BO candle was a big one, waited for the price to test the DP second time. But price fell down rapidly. Should have entered at the low of the swing low.

4) Daveji has marked another RL inside the Range. It gave a beautiful BOF signal. Should learn to mark them.

No more trades for the day. 

28/04/2014, MONDAY

1) Tried to break PDL, but couldn't. First signal was BOF of  IRH cum TST PDC. Didn't take it as the space was hardly 6.5 points.

2) LOL BOF of PDL/BRN was a good signal. But price was resisted well ahead of  IRH. Exited with 2.65 points. Exited bit early without following the exit strategy. Still have to improve on this aspect. Failure of LOL BOF suggested that Bears may soon take control of proceedings. But choppiness was the order of the whole day.

3) Strong BOF of IRH/PDC lookied like a good signal. But 2 pinbars at IRL looked like good support at that level. Hence cancelled the entry order. This move too didn't go well.

Choppiness only increased towards the closing session.

25/04/2014,FRIDAY

1) First day of a new Series. Marking PDH,PDL remains a problem on the first day of a new series.Maybe, have to look only at Nifty Spot chart on the first day.

2) Small Gap down. IRL was broken and price pulled back above PDL and got rejected. Strong WT BOF with a penetration of more than 5 points was a good signal to go short. Hesitated on where to short - at the BO candle low or swing low. Strength of WT BOF influenced in a big way and placed a SL order below BO candle low, bit late. But price moved down quickly and this order was not filled.

Price pulled back to the level, I wanted for entry, but hesitated. Finally placed an order below the swing low. But the momentum was very less and it looked like the price may chop and consolidate. Hence cancelled this order too.
In the hindsight, should have shorted without hesitating on seeing such a strong WT BOF, at BO candle low,  considering the minimum space with FTA. PULL THE TRIGGER AS SOON AS YOU SEE SUCH JUICY SET UPS.

3) After moving in a tight range for almost 3 hours, price fell sharply. Shorted on BPB and got 8 points.

4) Didn't take  CT PP Long.
Was looking for a BOF either at Day Low or BRN. But what followed was TST at Day Low. Further
space between the entry swing picot and MSP was very less.

Hence skipped the CT PP Long. BOF at MSP trapped all the PP Longs.Further difference between ATP and VWAP was more than 32 points and probably that is why bears were under no pressure whatsoever to exit enmasse to trigger a quick reversal.

Only one trade for the day.

ST Clarification.:

ST has clarified to another blogmate as to how he decided that price will go down(not up) after the consolidation for 3.5 hours.

My BO trade was a minor trap pattern. Notice that I have drawn a line there.
There was no upward momentum on the break of previous swing high.
If price stayed above that flip line for a while, I will look to go long on a BO. Target will be IRH
We can expect a lot of stops above this range

23/04/2014, WEDNESDAY

1) Being Expiry Day, had to refer options OI. The broad range is 6800 to 6900. OI of  6850 was more or less evenly matched. 

2) Opened just below PDC and started moving up with very low momentum. As PDH and RN were closely located one above another, had to wait till the price encountered RN.

3) Weak BOF of RN followed. Penetration was just 1.25 points. Move originated as BO of  IRH. RN is not a strong DP. Hence kept an order below swing low. This order was not filled. If entry was made at low of BO candle, would have been stopped out.

4) Failure of BOF of RN looked like BO. Though RN was broken, RN-Spot was not firmly broken. Hence didn’t go Long above RN.

5) Failing to break RN Spot, price started falling down in a sloping channel. Waited till 2.00 PM and choppiness continued. Didn’t want to enter after 2.00 PM -  big boys jump in the fray and the swing traders  go for a Roll over rendering the analysis an impossible task. 

So no trades for the day.

   

22/04/2014,Tuesday

1) BOF at PDC within the first few minutes. Should have gone LONG above the MC(first candle) high.   Space was just 13 points. Didn't take the trade. This trade didn't move well.  In the hindsight, feel that, should have taken the trade, as it was a good WT BOF.  Never know, which one moves well. Discipline and consistency are the most important pre requisites.

2) BOF at PDC was a good signal. Entered and exited(at the low of BO candle of  PDH) well and got 10 points.

3)Didn't short BOF of RH, as the move originated with a BOF of PDC. There was a high chance for PDH to gt broken.  

Throughout the day, price was in a tight range. Whichever way BO happens, explosive move in the offing?

My query and ST's clarification.

S.KarthikeyanApril 22, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Sir,
I went LONG exactly at the place where you exited your PP trade, as I thought that it was a BOF of PDC. I exited at the breach of BO candle low of HOD.

Though I exited, I expected the HOD to be breached sooner or later, as this move began with a BOF at the other extreme. What were the factors that suggested that HOD will hold and price has to go down?

S.Karthikeyan

SMART TraderApril 22, 2014 at 7:09 PM
SK
Your long was a nice trade good entry and exit.
There were three layers of resistance HOD,PDH and RN.
Naturally you can expect a lot of stops above these levels. But price was not able to move up because there were resting orders waiting above it.Two candles with upper tails showed this.
You missed the trade because you were not able to change your bias so fast.If you were not long during the up move, you will not find it difficult to short there .Same thing happened to me also. I was not able to reverse my short to long at the bottom. We need to work on it and correct it.

ST

21/04/2014, MONDAY

1) Was in a very narrow range for a long time. Strong LOL BOF of IRL/PDH at Noon. Didn’t take it as the space between the possible point of entry and FTA was hardly 7 points. 

2)LOL BOF failed to break IRH, indicating that IRL may get broken anytime. After another mild BOF at IRL, price spiked above IRH and soon reversed to IRL, suggesting the absence of significant imbalance between buyers and sellers.

3) This was followed by price consolidating just below IRH, suggesting order accuumulation above IRH, which is a high fluidity zone. As the price has been moving in a very narrow range for  more than 5 hours, any BO into the fluidity should be a good move. 

Good BO soon followed and those who had taken this trade could have made around 25 points. Skipped this trade in line with the policy of avoiding direct BO trades, till consistent wins are achieved.

So no trades for the day.  

17042014, THURSDAY

1) Opened just above PDC and was in a tight range. PDC, PDL and BRN were there in the downside. Spiked up suddenly. No clear sigla for this move.

2) Price consolidated above RN for some time and BOF occured there. Should have entered just above RN. Hesitated as RH and PDH were closely located. Missed a nice move, all the way upto 6800.

3) Could have entered Long at BPB @ PDH. Hesitated, as further move  for the day beyond 65 points may not be possible. But price kept moving upto BRN.

4) Another MSP BOF towards the end of the day. Skipped it too, as Nifty had moved already 90+ points.

So no trades for today too.

There is an inherent weakness to take BOF and BPB Long trades. Should work on that aspect.

.

 

16/04/14,WEDNESDAY

1) Was in a constantly reducing range to start with. Shorted at IRH BOF. Poor trailing resulted in losing 65 points. Trailing must be broken down into many small operations and followed.

2) Shorted at MSP BOF. Scratched. It was not a strong BOF. Should have waited till the flip zone is formed before taking the trade. Entered on BO candle low.

Forgettable day.

15/04/2014,TUESDAY

1) Infosys results announced at Market opening time. Opened near PDH and and got sold out.Price fell down by more than 85 poimts in no time without giving any opportunity for entry.
Placed a SL Sell order below RL, but cancelled it immediately, as chances of a further down move after such a big fall were limited.

2)  FTC at RL, indicated the upcoming narrow range for some time. But it consolidation in a narrow range went on for more than 5 hours. Waited in vain upto 2.30 to see the price encounter either RH(MSP) or RL.

3) Price suddenly spiked  above MSP(RH). Going Long was not an option as PDL was too close. Eventually price was rejected and looked very much like BOF. Didn't take the BOF AS
    i) wanted to take only CT trades towards the end of the day.
   ii) price fell back into the range at 2.55 pm only. Margin won't allow me to trade after 3.00 PM.
   iii) Time taken to fall back into the range was high, indicating that the BOF may fail. As expected this                   move didn't travel much distance.
 
So, no trades for the day.

11/04/2014,FRIDAY

1) Gapped down below PDL/PDC and BRN. Didn't take the BOF of IRH-BRN confluence, as the space between possible entry point and IRL was too less.

2) Was moving in a Cigaratte like narrow range. Suddenly price rose rapidly and LOL BOF occured. Shorted below the minor swing low just below BRN. Being such a strong BOF, expected the IRL to get broken effortlessly and move down for at least 40+ points. But IRL supported the price. Exited with 5.5 points.  Though this exit is not bad in today's context, am not happy with the manner in which I trailed. Exited before the PB of new zone was completed. Need of the hour is patience while trailing.

Didn't take any other trade.

My query and  ST's clarification.

Sir,
Please explain, why you expected a strong reversal in the last half an hour.
Thanks
S.Karthikeyan

April 11, 2014 at 4:46 PM

S.Karthikeyan said...

Sir,
I refer to your second trade. It seems that you had exited as soon as the 1.33 Noon candle(Day Low candle) high was breached.

Normally, when BOF is noticed at a Range extreme, we expect the other Range to break. Normally you wait to see whether the other extreme gets broken in the second attempt, if not in the first attempt. But in this case, you seemed to be quite sure on seeing the 1.33 Noon candle that it is the BOF of IRL and exited early. How did you judge it so correctly and made a quick exit?

I too took that trade and exited bit late.

Thanks

SMART Trader said...

SK

Price failed to extend beyond the first candle of the day three times and when the fourth one closed inside the range after the break I exited immediately protecting little profit.
I immediately placed a SL short entry order below LOD not to miss the down move if it happened.Nifty was in no mood to go down. I expected some short covering at the end due to holidays

ST